EVOLVING FORESIGHT IN A SMALL TRANSITION ECONOMY The Design, Use and Relevance of Foresight Methods in Hungary

Hungary launched her first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) in 1997. This was a holistic foresight programme, based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey, with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs. The paper discusses why a foresight exercise is relevant to a transition country, then describes what was done (organisation, methods and results), and how the process evolved in Hungary. Policy conclusions, methodological lessons and questions for further research are also offered. The heritage of the former system, the transition process itself and the current level of socioeconomic development all played a decisive role throughout the programme. TEP was set up as a programme controlled by non-governmental experts, and in turn, the Steering Group delegated a great deal of autonomy to the panels. Thus, methods were refined continuously. Given the fundamental socio-economic changes in Hungary and the enlargement of the European Union a strong emphasis was put on scenarios – both at macro and panel levels –, and a large number of Delphi-statements featured non-technological issues. However developing qualitatively different visions, and aligning macro and panel futures, proved to be a difficult and challenging task.